Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.