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For a brief period, Donald Trump appeared to take a resolute stance on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "significant repercussions" during the summer should Putin continued hindering peace negotiations, the former president ultimately imposed major penalties on the Russian two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move substantially affected the Russian leader's capability to fund his military invasion in the region.

But, via his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, which was developed by American and Russian diplomats without Ukrainian or European input, he has apparently reverted to his favorable to Russia position.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's plan would effectively favor Putin for invading Ukraine while putting Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Although bold proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the initiative in reality weaken that same autonomy. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business experience, the former president seems to treat the war as a mere territorial dispute, like ceding Putin a section of Ukrainian territory will please the president. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not merely about dominating a destroyed area of deindustrialized territory in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent intention to eliminate it so it stops functions as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the democratic leadership that Putin's deepening dictatorship withholds them.

Land Surrenders

Although keeping in status the currently separated oblasts of these areas, Trump's proposal would compel Ukraine to give up all of Donetsk region. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its forces have been unable to capture in exceeding a decade of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukraine's military defenses dangerously compromised.

This region is the place of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the entrenched military defenses that represent a critical barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, giving Putin a unobstructed path to Kyiv if he later choose to restart the war.

Military Restrictions

Then, in a action that would facilitate renewed conflict easier for Russia, the plan would require the nation to cut the size of its troops from their present large number personnel to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Significantly, the initiative places no similar restrictions on the invading army.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's democratically elected leadership as extremists, the proposal states: "Every radical ideology and activities must be condemned and banned." As if to underscore this element, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. However, Trump sets no condition that Putin endanger his dictatorship by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the plan includes the Russian Federation promise not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken comparable treaties in the past – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia promised to honor the nation's borders in return for giving up its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a return of captured territory in the Donbas to the government – for what reason should the international community have confidence in Russia now?

That is why Ukraine has been so determined on western defense commitments. While the proposal threatens a "strong unified military response" if the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the particulars vary from vague to alarming. The initiative would not just prevent the nation Nato membership but also prohibit Nato members from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, thus precluding the security presence, reportedly headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Russia from rebuilding his weakened troops, restocking, and reinvading.

International Concern

A separate parallel deal according to sources would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault endangering the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a military response. Yet unlike a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's most reliable protection against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the dedication of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to react militarily to Putin's attacks, something they have {not