🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

However the current competition is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime also-rans improving in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still